from collections.abc import Sequence, Mapping
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import numpy as np
import seaborn as sns
from scipy.stats import binom
from bayesflow.utils import logging
from bayesflow.utils import prepare_plot_data, add_titles_and_labels, prettify_subplots
[docs]
def calibration_histogram(
estimates: Mapping[str, np.ndarray] | np.ndarray,
targets: Mapping[str, np.ndarray] | np.ndarray,
variable_keys: Sequence[str] = None,
variable_names: Sequence[str] = None,
figsize: Sequence[float] = None,
num_bins: int = 10,
binomial_interval: float = 0.99,
label_fontsize: int = 16,
title_fontsize: int = 18,
tick_fontsize: int = 12,
color: str = "#132a70",
num_col: int = None,
num_row: int = None,
) -> plt.Figure:
"""Creates and plots publication-ready histograms of rank statistics for simulation-based calibration
(SBC) checks according to [1].
Any deviation from uniformity indicates miscalibration and thus poor convergence
of the networks or poor combination between generative model / networks.
[1] Talts, S., Betancourt, M., Simpson, D., Vehtari, A., & Gelman, A. (2018).
Validating Bayesian inference algorithms with simulation-based calibration.
arXiv preprint arXiv:1804.06788.
Parameters
----------
estimates : np.ndarray of shape (n_data_sets, n_post_draws, n_params)
The posterior draws obtained from n_data_sets
targets : np.ndarray of shape (n_data_sets, n_params)
The prior draws obtained for generating n_data_sets
variable_keys : list or None, optional, default: None
Select keys from the dictionaries provided in estimates and targets.
By default, select all keys.
variable_names : list or None, optional, default: None
The parameter names for nice plot titles. Inferred if None
figsize : tuple or None, optional, default : None
The figure size passed to the matplotlib constructor. Inferred if None
num_bins : int, optional, default: 10
The number of bins to use for each marginal histogram
binomial_interval : float in (0, 1), optional, default: 0.99
The width of the confidence interval for the binomial distribution
label_fontsize : int, optional, default: 16
The font size of the y-label text
title_fontsize : int, optional, default: 18
The font size of the title text
tick_fontsize : int, optional, default: 12
The font size of the axis ticklabels
color : str, optional, default '#a34f4f'
The color to use for the histogram body
num_row : int, optional, default: None
The number of rows for the subplots. Dynamically determined if None.
num_col : int, optional, default: None
The number of columns for the subplots. Dynamically determined if None.
Returns
-------
f : plt.Figure - the figure instance for optional saving
Raises
------
ShapeError
If there is a deviation form the expected shapes of `estimates` and `targets`.
"""
plot_data = prepare_plot_data(
estimates=estimates,
targets=targets,
variable_keys=variable_keys,
variable_names=variable_names,
num_col=num_col,
num_row=num_row,
figsize=figsize,
)
estimates = plot_data.pop("estimates")
targets = plot_data.pop("targets")
# Determine the ratio of simulations to prior draw
# num_params = plot_data['num_variables']
num_sims = estimates.shape[0]
num_draws = estimates.shape[1]
ratio = int(num_sims / num_draws)
# Log a warning if N/B ratio recommended by Talts et al. (2018) < 20
if ratio < 20:
logging.warning(
"The ratio of simulations / posterior draws should be > 20 "
f"for reliable variance reduction, but your ratio is {ratio}. "
"Confidence intervals might be unreliable!"
)
# Set num_bins automatically, if nothing provided
if num_bins is None:
num_bins = int(ratio / 2)
# Attempt a fix if a single bin is determined so plot still makes sense
if num_bins == 1:
num_bins = 4
# Compute ranks (using broadcasting)
ranks = np.sum(estimates < targets[:, np.newaxis, :], axis=1)
# Compute confidence interval and mean
num_trials = int(targets.shape[0])
# uniform distribution expected -> for all bins: equal probability
# p = 1 / num_bins that a rank lands in that bin
endpoints = binom.interval(binomial_interval, num_trials, 1 / num_bins)
mean = num_trials / num_bins # corresponds to binom.mean(N, 1 / num_bins)
for j, ax in enumerate(plot_data["axes"].flat):
ax.axhspan(endpoints[0], endpoints[1], facecolor="gray", alpha=0.3)
ax.axhline(mean, color="gray", zorder=0, alpha=0.9)
sns.histplot(ranks[:, j], kde=False, ax=ax, color=color, bins=num_bins, alpha=0.95)
ax.get_yaxis().set_ticks([])
prettify_subplots(plot_data["axes"], tick_fontsize)
add_titles_and_labels(
axes=plot_data["axes"],
num_row=plot_data["num_row"],
num_col=plot_data["num_col"],
title=plot_data["variable_names"],
xlabel="Rank statistic",
ylabel="",
title_fontsize=title_fontsize,
label_fontsize=label_fontsize,
)
plot_data["fig"].tight_layout()
return plot_data["fig"]
